Energy storage battery price decline trend
Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline). Our analysts estimate that almost half of the decline will come from declining prices of EV raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
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6 FAQs about [Energy storage battery price decline trend]
Are battery prices resuming a long-term trend?
Battery prices are resuming a long-term trend of decline, following an unprecedented increase last year. According to BloombergNEF’s annual lithium-ion battery price survey, average pack prices fell to $139 per kilowatt hour this year, a 14% drop from $161/kWh in 2022. 1 Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get in Touch
Will battery pack prices drop again next year?
Given this, BNEF expects average battery pack prices to drop again next year, reaching $133/kWh (in real 2023 dollars). Technological innovation and manufacturing improvement should drive further declines in battery pack prices in the coming years, to $113/kWh in 2025 and $80/kWh in 2030.
How does the price of a battery change over the next decade?
Growth in the battery industry is a function of price. As the scale of production increases, prices come down. Figure 1 forecasts the decrease in price of an automotive cell over the next decade. The price per kWh moved from $132 per kWh in 2018 to a high of $161 in 2021. But from 2022 to 2030 the price will decline to an estimated $80 per kWh.
Are lithium-ion battery prices falling?
The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991 was just $181 in 2018. That’s 41 times less. What’s promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.
Why are battery prices falling?
While the main cause of falling battery prices has historically been technological innovation, this year the price drop is mainly attributed to reduced raw material costs.
Do projected cost reductions for battery storage vary over time?
The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the suite of projected cost reductions (on a normalized basis) collected from the literature (shown in gray) as well as the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (shown in black).